Estrategia Carry Trade

Carry Trade es una de las estrategias más sencillas que podemos llevar a cabo en el mercado de divisas. Su idea principal consiste en aprovechar las diferencias de tipos de interés entre diferentes divisas. Para ello buscaremos pares en los que exista una diferencia sustancial entre sus tipos de interés, siendo la divisa referencia del par (la que se mantiene a la izquierda) la que mantenga el tipo más alto, para a continuación abrir posiciones de compra. Por cada día que mantengamos la posición abierta, el broker nos pagará un swap positivo como resultado de la diferencia entre las tasas de interés de cada divisa.
Por ejemplo, si la tasa de re-financiación del dólar australiano (AUD) es de 2,5%, y la tasa del dólar de EE.UU. (USD) es de 0,25 %, podemos abrir una posición larga en el par AUD / USD. De esta manera estaremos invirtiendo nuestro dinero en la divisa con una rentabilidad de dividendo superior. Por cada día que mantengamos la transacción abierta, el broker nos pagará la diferencia entre las tasas de interés de las dos monedas, resultando un interés anual igual a la diferencia de tipos, en este caso 2,5 – 0,25 = 2,25%. Con el tiempo, nuestros ingresos aumentarán y esto nos dará la oportunidad de volver a comprar la moneda a un precio competitivo.

  ¿Cómo las tasas de interés afectan en los mercados financieros?¿Cuál es la ventaja de las operaciones a largo plazo con Rollover?

La ventaja de este tipo de trading es que recibimos ingresos adicionales en forma de swaps positivos independientemente de los beneficios generales. El carry trade también nos permite usar el apalancamiento para obtener beneficios. Si abrimos una operación de un lote que como sabemos tiene un valor de 100.000 USD, sólo vamos a usar 1,000 USD de margen real (tomando como referencia un apalancamiento de 1:100), mientras que el broker nos pagará intereses sobre los 100.000 USD. Como puede ver, esta técnica aumenta significativamente los beneficios.
¿Qué riesgos entraña el carry trade?
Existen varios riesgos en la estrategia de carry trade. Los pares de divisas que tienen las mejores condiciones para explotar está técnica también suelen tener una elevada volatilidad. Por esta razón, debemos elegir con atención el par de divisas y el momento de entrada al mercado. Una situación de inestabilidad en los mercados puede afectar de forma negativa a nuestra operación, y sin una gestión del riesgo adecuada, los traders podemos sufrir pérdidas como resultado.
¿Cuál es el resultado?
Si abrimos una posición larga con un par de divisas de swap positivo y el tipo de cambio se mantiene igual o se mueve a nuestro favor, podríamos obtener un doble beneficio, puesto que el generado por el cobro de swaps positivos lo tendríamos garantizado.
El pago de intereses diarios sobre nuestra cuenta reducirá el riesgo de pérdidas, pero no  garantiza la protección total de posibles pérdidas. La tasa de interés debería ser considerada como una oportunidad de obtener beneficios adicionales por nuestras inversiones a largo plazo, y no como la opción de conseguir dinero fácil.
Al igual que en cualquier otra estrategia de negociación es importante  saber gestionar los riesgos adecuadamente, y analizar bien la situación del mercado antes de abrir cualquier posición. La idea de conseguir un interés diario sin ningún esfuerzo es muy atractiva pero si no somos cautelosos nos puede acarrear pérdidas.
El momento óptimo para aplicar esta estrategia es cuando el mercado está plano y no se prevén periodos de gran volatilidad. Si aplicamos la estrategia correctamente nos puede llevar a una mejora muy significativa de nuestros resultados.

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